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China Watcher 2023 Predictions: Revving up for Rabbit Year



Hi, China Watchers. This is our final edition of 2022 and the New Year (followed by the start of Chinese Year of the Rabbit in late January) is just around the corner. We’re reading the tea leaves— via the input of some of the sharpest China hands around — to provide savvy predictions about what to expect in U.S.-China relations in 2023. We’ll also spill on an illuminating discussion between iconic Chinese pro-democracy activist Wei Jingsheng and former deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger and parse Chinese state media’s Covid alternate reality. And since Dec. 31 marks the third anniversary of Beijing alerting the World Health Organization of “cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan” that we now know as Covid-19, we profile a book that calls the possible circumstances of the disease’s origins “the worst scientific scandal in history.”To get more china business market news, you can visit shine news official website.
“The determinant for US-China relations in 2023 will rest on Beijing, not D.C. As China makes a rather sudden reversal from zero-Covid to living with Covid, we don’t know how much that will mean people dying from Covid and how public opinion and panic may shift as a result. The bilateral relationship will depend on how well Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING manages his new approach to the pandemic. There may well be another whiplash of a reversal and fresh lockdowns if too many people are dying in hospitals. Or many Chinese may get sick but not as many fatally. Either way, what happens domestically determines how Xi engages internationally.”

“Both countries are free of major domestic political events next year, such as elections or a CCP Party Congress, which presumably gives the two countries some space to improve their relations without the interference from domestic politics. However, the reconciliation will be subject to events out of either leaders’ control, such as new House Speaker KEVIN MCCARTHY’s expected trip to Taiwan. That will impose additional stress on U.S.-China relations and will require wisdom from the two leaders to carefully navigate.”

“Xi is taking a more pragmatic approach to stabilize the U.S.-China relationship, in the hope that this will help secure China’s continued growth and rise. In the meantime, he is clearly embarking on an ambitious, explicit and large-scale international campaign to gradually erode the influence and popularity of the U.S. predominance in the international system. China’s diplomatic focus will be to expand its influence in the rest of the world, in the Global South countries particularly, but also in Europe to undermine President JOE BIDEN’s administration’s effort to rebuild American power through stronger alliances.”

“U.S.-China relations will probably stabilize somewhat in early 2023 given Xi’s ongoing charm offensive, one aimed at repairing Beijing’s badly damaged reputation without altering any of its malign behavior. While disagreements over Taiwan, tech and trade will dominate the dynamic, Xi will benefit greatly from the breathing room afforded by the Biden administration’s shifting focus from containment to stability maintenance. Over time, Washington’s perceived passivity could lead China to ramp-up its aggressive sub-crisis maneuvering, with an eye towards influencing Taiwan’s 2024 election.”

“U.S.-China climate change cooperation is poised to see a resurgence in the New Year. Even the business community now recognizes the value of climate cooperation, with the U.S.-China Business Council honoring Chinese climate minister XIE ZHENHUA, along with Energy Foundation China President & CEO ZOU JI, at its annual Gala in Washington earlier this month. Restrictions that had been placed on the US-China Climate Working Group last August were lifted at the presidential summit in Bali, greenlighting official bilateral engagement during COP27 and signaling that climate change is still an area where both countries perceive benefit from cooperation.”

“From the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act to the Sitong Bridge and other courageous protesters to puncturing the Chinese government’s expectations of impunity at the United Nations, 2022 showed that it’s a bad idea to bet against human rights. In 2023 the U.S. will not just work towards an investigation into and accountability for the Chinese government’s grave international crimes against Uyghurs and others. It will also temper its expectations for cooperation across the relationship accordingly in this post-zero-Covid policy, post-20th Party Congress, post-Xi-Biden ‘normal’ meeting. There’s only so much you can hope to accomplish with a government committing crimes against humanity inside China and human rights abusesabroad.”